BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: HVYSNOW: Probabilistic Heavy Snow And Icing Discussion De: COD Weather Processor Data: Mon, 16 Mar 2026 18:22:27 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- FOUS11 KWBC 161822 QPFHSD Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 222 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Valid 00Z Tue Mar 17 2026 - 00Z Fri Mar 20 2026 ...Great Lakes... Days 1-2... ...Blizzard conditions to persist through this evening in the Northern Great Lakes... As this historic winter storm races north and east into eastern=20 Canada tonight, potent NW winds and CAA in its wake will produce=20 widespread lake effect snow (LES) over the Great Lakes. Although=20 lake temperatures are cold and somewhat ice covered, according to=20 GLERL, 850mb temps crashing to as low as -20C will foster steep=20 lapse rates and sufficiently saturated profiles within the DGZ=20 aloft. The result will be LES snow bands with rates above 1"/hr=20 (40-70% chance) tonight and into Tuesday morning. Winds should=20 begin to lessen on Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the=20 west, but prolonged cyclonic flow will fuel rounds of moderate-to-=20 heavy snow in the favored snow belts east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. LES bands should finally taper off by Tuesday night. WPC probabilities for LES are moderate-to-high D1 (50-70) for 4+=20 inches in the northwest portion of Michigan's Mitten near Traverse=20 City, along the eastern U.P., and in the southwest L.P.. Farther=20 east, probabilities around 50% for snowfall >4" are located along=20 the Chautauqua Ridge and the Tug Hill Plateau. The Tug Hill on south closer to Oswego, NY could see locally heavy totals with low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for snowfall totals over 12=20 inches possible.=20 ...Central Appalachians & Interior Northeast... Days 1-2... A powerful arctic front will race through the Northeast and Mid- Atlantic by this evening. In wake of this FROPA, temperatures will plummet due to strong CAA, while mid and upper level flow remains=20 southerly in response to the strongly tilted and digging upper=20 trough. Combined with upslope enhancement, this will cause=20 precipitation to rapidly transition to snow from the Central=20 Appalachians and Laurel Highlands to the Finger Lakes of NY and the Catskills/Adirondacks. While most of this snow will just be conversational at lower elevations, in the higher elevations of the Central Appalachians,=20 a two-part event supporting of heavy snow is anticipated. The=20 first will be directly behind the front as p-type changes rapidly=20 from rain to snow, leading to a brief period of snowfall rates=20 surpassing 1"/hr (40-60% chance) from the Central Appalachians=20 through the Laurel Highlands and into the Finger Lakes region of=20 NY. This first round of snowfall accumulations will be modest, generally in the 1-3" initially. However, behind the front, the=20 increasing CAA via NW flow will foster healthy upslope ascent into the Central Appalachians tonight through Tuesday. Typically favored areas along the Potomac Highlands and Alleghenies above 2,000ft will be favored for long snow durations, and thus higher totals.=20 WPC probabilities peak above 50% for 6+ inches of snowfall. In addition, as the trailing vorticity maxima and secondary=20 shortwave embedded within the trough over the OH Valley moves east Tuesday afternoon, convective snow showers and isolated snow=20 squalls could develop across this area. Areas from the southern tier of NY, western and central PA, and on south to the Central Appalachians would be the most likely areas to contend with any potential snow squalls. Additional snowfall accumulations will be=20 light with any of these convective elements, but briefly heavy snow rates and gusty winds could cause local travel impacts due to rapid reductions in visibility. Weiss/Mullinax ...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20 Key Messages below... https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late= stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!_PBmGNDDtPkqf99AfBb9zAW0sYahBWciDI3fczJK8meXB= oxjP-bprusGbhxlHvC5KcNZELrZF-Wv5J8glSkQJf207U4$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]