BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sat, 21 Mar 2026 05:31:18 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 210531 SWODY1 SPC AC 210529 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail to near 1 inch diameter this afternoon and evening across the southern Appalachian region. ...Southern Appalachians... Very strong midlevel anticyclone remains anchored over the southwestern CONUS. This is forcing meaningful short waves across the northern Rockies/high Plains before digging southeast toward the eastern portions of the United States. Early this morning, water-vapor imagery depicts one of these features digging southeast across eastern SD/NE. By the start of the period this short wave will extend across IL/southeast MO/northeast AR, then it will advance into KY/TN by early afternoon. At the surface, a weak boundary that is draped across VA-northern KY will gradually lift north and become somewhat diffuse west of the higher terrain. South of this wind shift, modest boundary-layer heating will be noted across the Carolinas into the TN Valley such that 0-3km lapse rates should exceed 7 C/km by peak heating. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be approached, or breached by 21z as temperatures rise through the upper 70s to near 80F across southeast KY/eastern TN. While low-level convergence is expected to be somewhat weak, orographic influences will contribute to the potential for isolated thunderstorm development ahead of the short wave. Forecast midlevel flow is expected to be around 30-35kt across this region at 500mb, so deep-layer shear may prove adequate for a few supercells. If robust convection develops in this environment then hail on the order of 1 inch could be noted with the strongest storms. This activity will spread southeast into the western Carolinas as the short wave advances downstream. The primary concern for hail will be during the afternoon/evening hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/21/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]