BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sat, 21 Mar 2026 16:31:22 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 211631 SWODY1 SPC AC 211629 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce marginally severe hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening from the southern Appalachians into the Carolinas. ...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas... Recent satellite imagery shows a somewhat subtle and broad shortwave trough progressing southeastward through the MS Valley, along the far northeast periphery of the upper ridging covering much of the Southwest and southern Plains. Limited low-level moisture precedes this wave, with recent surface analysis sampling dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s across much of AL to the mid 40s across much of the Carolinas. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated today ahead of this wave. However, this advection will be countered by diurnal mixing, and the general expectation is for dewpoints to be in the upper 40s/low 50s from eastern TN into the Carolinas as the wave moves in the area this afternoon. Even with this limited low-level moisture, cool mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates will support weak buoyancy and the potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Large-scale ascent will be modest, supporting an initially more cellular, loosely organized storm mode. This region will be on the southern periphery of the stronger mid-level flow, likely resulting in sufficient shear for organization within any deeper, more persistent updrafts. As such, updrafts are expected to gradually intensify as they move into the western and central Carolinas. Marginally severe hail is possible with the strongest cores. A trend towards a more linear/line segment mode is expected with time, and persistent steep low-level lapse rates may support occasional strong to damaging downdraft winds as well. The onset of nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization should result in a decreasing severe threat as the storms move into the coastal Carolinas. ..Mosier/Chalmers.. 03/21/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]