BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sat, 21 Mar 2026 18:39:57 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- FOUS30 KWBC 211839 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 239 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Day 1 Valid 16Z Sat Mar 21 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 22 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Orrison Day 2 Valid 12Z Sun Mar 22 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 23 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE... Latest guidance (including CAMs) depict scattered thunderstorms developing in only a modestly moist airmass for heavy rainfall (around 1 inch PW) and fast storm speeds from strong westerly flow aloft. The storms will, however, form along an initiating boundary oriented parallel to westerly flow aloft, supporting areas of localized training. Areas of 1-2 inch rainfall totals are expected, and some of that rain could fall in a short timeframe (<3 hours). Given low FFG, some potential for deep convection in urban areas=20 (Philadelphia to New York City), and locally sensitive locales in=20 southwestern Pennsylvania/far northern West Virginia, introduced=20 low/Marginal probabilties for excessive runoff. Cook Day 3 Valid 12Z Mon Mar 23 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 24 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Cook/Roth Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5IRA_8MNtg0E9LJTNHpkjoqjE4YLf1NVruuAVtK5jCyN= P2Yxgr6EclzlUZhXcjmBDrwMaM61eg_BSXeIGGLkhuzN0AA$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5IRA_8MNtg0E9LJTNHpkjoqjE4YLf1NVruuAVtK5jCyN= P2Yxgr6EclzlUZhXcjmBDrwMaM61eg_BSXeIGGLkqgP5joo$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5IRA_8MNtg0E9LJTNHpkjoqjE4YLf1NVruuAVtK5jCyN= P2Yxgr6EclzlUZhXcjmBDrwMaM61eg_BSXeIGGLkSrO3HZE$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]