BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion De: COD Weather Processor Data: Mon, 23 Mar 2026 00:59:58 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- FOUS30 KWBC 230059 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 859 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Day 1 Valid 01Z Mon Mar 23 2026 - 12Z Mon Mar 23 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE OHIO=20 VALLEY TO THE NEW YORK CITY METRO... Forecast generally looks on track with a very localized flash flood risk continuing from portions of IN/OH, across central to southern PA and into central to northern NJ. The heaviest rainfall rates=20 tonight should be across portions of IN/OH and WV where instability is greater. Recent radar trends indicate the activity from IL into OH is increasing in coverage and magnitude, and thus even with=20 quick cell motions rainfall amounts may locally exceed 1" in a=20 short period of time. We did expand the Marginal risk a bit farther southwest to account for the strong to severe convection moving across these areas. Instability drops off as you get farther east=20 into PA and NJ, so rainfall rates are unlikely to be as high here.=20 Although multiple rounds should still result in a swath of 1-2" of=20 rain. Overall, looking at a rainfall rate driven isolated (and=20 lower end) flash flood risk over the southwest extent of the=20 Marginal risk area, and more of a duration driven low end flood=20 risk across the eastern end of the risk (generally central PA=20 towards NYC. Chenard Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon Mar 23 2026 - 12Z Tue Mar 24 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Wegman/Snell Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Mar 24 2026 - 12Z Wed Mar 25 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Portions of western Washington State, specifically the Olympic and Cascades Mountains, will be monitored for a potential Marginal Risk introduction with future updates. A front moving into the area will make for a brief time (12-hour) of heavy rain Tuesday morning. While this would normally not be nearly long enough to result in flash flooding, given there is ongoing river flooding from the last event, and both soils and streams/creeks are full, this round of heavy rain may be enough to cause renewed isolated flash flooding. Wegman/Snell Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8jbHh-GhSknFcTfkAtpdoRj5MsECuWeBIPviDCHpfAqM= erK1Df7itcVeXQ2TRpxtIosheMlNGcScOEcVKuQrQBAYA3E$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8jbHh-GhSknFcTfkAtpdoRj5MsECuWeBIPviDCHpfAqM= erK1Df7itcVeXQ2TRpxtIosheMlNGcScOEcVKuQr_0Ylthg$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8jbHh-GhSknFcTfkAtpdoRj5MsECuWeBIPviDCHpfAqM= erK1Df7itcVeXQ2TRpxtIosheMlNGcScOEcVKuQr2TLgEhA$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]