BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion De: COD Weather Processor Data: Tue, 24 Mar 2026 06:22:17 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- FOUS30 KWBC 240622 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 222 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026 Day 1 Valid 12Z Tue Mar 24 2026 - 12Z Wed Mar 25 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Wegman Day 2 Valid 12Z Wed Mar 25 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 26 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Wegman Day 3 Valid 12Z Thu Mar 26 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 27 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... A strong cold front will move southward across the Midwest Thursday night. The front will run into a marginally unstable and warm air mass, but with limited moisture with surface dew points on either side of 60 degrees. Nonetheless, with some upper level support and significant shear, organized thunderstorms are likely to form Thursday evening. The storms could then train over many of the=20 same areas that saw some heavy rain from a very similar-behaving front yesterday. This is a lower-end Marginal Risk as upper level support and instability will both not be quite as favorable to the storms as yesterday. This will be somewhat offset by a bit wetter soils by then than they were before yesterday's rainfall event. The areas most likely to see an instance or two of flash flooding are the urban centers. Should forecast rainfall decrease, which appears possible, the Marginal may be able to be dropped with future updates. Wegman Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6guaY9ixg-w75jj9S3jGpUJfMheEDiWnIXwEd7cDnumr= DXddTuqApJj7k6N5sYtkeZiYtTGSJe0IgqUTJknCmSp5Ymg$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6guaY9ixg-w75jj9S3jGpUJfMheEDiWnIXwEd7cDnumr= DXddTuqApJj7k6N5sYtkeZiYtTGSJe0IgqUTJknC3BTpr2E$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6guaY9ixg-w75jj9S3jGpUJfMheEDiWnIXwEd7cDnumr= DXddTuqApJj7k6N5sYtkeZiYtTGSJe0IgqUTJknCa1uAL-Q$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]