BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok De: COD Weather Processor Data: Tue, 24 Mar 2026 07:29:08 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS03 KWNS 240729 SWODY3 SPC AC 240728 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper ridge will continue to shift east over the next 48-72 hours towards the south-central CONUS. As this occurs, zonal flow across the northern Rockies will promote lee troughing and a strengthening southerly return flow regime through Thursday. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s may spread as far north as southern Michigan by early Thursday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front as it pushes east/southeast into the returning moisture. Strong low-level forcing along the frontal boundary will likely favor convective bands and upscale growth into the evening hours with a predominant severe/damaging wind threat. However, some deterministic solutions suggest a combination of 40-50 knot deep-layer shear vectors oriented off the frontal boundary over the Midwest, lingering pre-frontal capping, and limited broad-scale ascent through a deep layer may promote semi-discrete convection. While confidence in this scenario is limited at this range, a threat for sustained supercells with a significant hail, and perhaps some tornado, threat could emerge. Based on a consensus of deterministic and ensemble guidance, the severe risk appears greatest across central IL into IN and western OH where strong QPF and convective environment signals (SCP values of 4-6) are noted. However, some severe risk is expected southwestward along the front into MO and far eastern KS where convection may be more isolated. A damaging wind threat may persist into parts of PA and WV overnight, but waning buoyancy eastward towards the Appalachians limits confidence in the eastern extent of the severe threat. ..Moore.. 03/24/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]