BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok De: COD Weather Processor Data: Tue, 24 Mar 2026 19:26:13 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS03 KWNS 241926 SWODY3 SPC AC 241925 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late Thursday afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. Very large hail appears likely. A few tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude but intense upper trough will move quickly from the far northern Plains across the Upper Great Lakes during the day, and across the Lower Great Lakes and northeastern states into Friday morning. Cooling aloft will occur late in the day and overnight across much of the Midwest and OH Valley, with gradually strengthening winds aloft south of the upper jet. At the surface, low pressure will extend from eastern NE into eastern Ontario or southwest Quebec Thursday morning, with the main low jumping northeastward into southeast Quebec or the Maritimes. Extending southwest from the low will be a cold front, which will proceed into northern MO, IL, IN and OH by 00Z. A broad fetch of mid 50s F to lower 60s dewpoints will exist ahead of this front, resulting in a relatively narrow plume of buoyancy where it remains uncapped. The combination of lift along the front, moderate to strong winds aloft, and sufficient instability should result in a corridor of severe storms from late afternoon through early evening affecting parts of IL, IN, and OH. ...IL/IN/OH - Late Afternoon/Early Evening... Much of the day will be free of precipitation, allowing for full heating and destabilization ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings indicate steep lapse rates aloft will develop, though a capping inversion will exist around 800 mb initially. Despite the cap, strong lift near the cold front will eventually support storms, likely supercells, after 21Z and perhaps closer to 00Z. Shear profiles will feature long hodographs, with a degree of low-level veering with height resulting in moderate SRH values. As the cap breaks, robust cells are likely to produce large hail, with several reports over 2.00" diameter expected. Although the storms will develop along the linear forcing mechanism, the favorable deep-layer shear is expected to maintain cellular storm mode for much of the event. Low-level shear will also support a tornado risk, especially for cells that propagate rightward. With the capping inversion present, storms should begin to diminish during the early evening as heating is lost, resulting in a relatively narrow corridor of significant severe storms. Given the narrow corridor at this forecast range, and thermodynamic uncertainties, will defer to later outlooks for any potential categorical upgrade. ..Jewell.. 03/24/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]