BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion De: COD Weather Processor Data: Wed, 25 Mar 2026 06:22:21 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- FOUS30 KWBC 250622 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 222 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026 Day 1 Valid 12Z Wed Mar 25 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 26 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Wegman Day 2 Valid 12Z Thu Mar 26 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 27 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... Only minor tweaks were needed for the new Day 2 forecast this morning. The latest guidance, including some of the longer-range CAMs, suggests that there is a greater chance for training showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening and Thursday night across portions of northern Indiana and Ohio. A series of waves of showers and storms will race eastward along the interface of a very strong southward-moving cold front. A zonal upper level jet streak across=20 Lake Superior will max out around 150 kt 00Z Friday. Meanwhile=20 moisture advection will allow PWATs to creep above 1.25 inches and=20 dew points to spike into the 60s. Instability in the longer-range=20 guidance has also nudged higher, into the 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg range of MUCAPE. While organized convection appears likely given=20 favorable instability and shear profiles, the fast motion of the=20 storms will remain the primary factor limiting the flash flooding=20 threat. Thus, as regards flooding potential, with somewhat better=20 environmental parameters than 24 hours ago but still dry soils in=20 most areas, especially into Illinois, the area remains under a=20 solid Marginal Risk. The greatest threat of isolated instances of=20 flash flooding remains into the urban centers. Since most of the=20 showers and storms will be occurring overnight Thursday night in=20 the Marginal Risk area, any flooding will pose a heightened danger=20 due to lack of visibility.=20 Wegman Day 3 Valid 12Z Fri Mar 27 2026 - 12Z Sat Mar 28 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Wegman Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7CQO2ZNGpvEFAaElUi_FmVUTgQQxxuTbCE-7NVE9yLtr= FpAylxVu-5vsGvExEESgo9i-GtJX34es_01WVAVHmmPheSI$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7CQO2ZNGpvEFAaElUi_FmVUTgQQxxuTbCE-7NVE9yLtr= FpAylxVu-5vsGvExEESgo9i-GtJX34es_01WVAVHz-ZjH6A$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7CQO2ZNGpvEFAaElUi_FmVUTgQQxxuTbCE-7NVE9yLtr= FpAylxVu-5vsGvExEESgo9i-GtJX34es_01WVAVH58cVtHk$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]