BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok De: COD Weather Processor Data: Wed, 25 Mar 2026 08:46:16 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS48 KWNS 250846 SWOD48 SPC AC 250844 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe thunderstorm potential remains limited for this weekend, though a gradual increase in some severe threat is anticipated by the middle of next week. In the wake of a cold frontal passage on D3/Friday into D4/Saturday, surface high pressure building over the eastern Plains and OH Valley will maintain dry and stable conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Concurrently, a slight re-amplification of an upper-level ridge this weekend over the Southwest/West Coast will maintain warm and dry conditions for the southwestern CONUS. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably consistent signal in the slow eastward migration of the upper ridge through early next week. As this occurs, surface high pressure will gradually shift off the East Coast and promote moisture return into the Plains and MS Valley. Tight clustering of GEFS members lends high confidence in the potential for a return of slightly above seasonal moisture by the D6/Monday to D7/Tuesday time frame. Thunderstorm chances should steadily increase through mid-week as southwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly predominant and promotes ascent/lapse-rate advection over the northwestern fringe of the returning moisture. Extended-range guidance hints at severe thunderstorm potential through the D6/Monday to D8/Wednesday time frame - mainly across the upper MS Valley/Midwest within the warm conveyor region of an organizing cyclone. While confidence in the overall synoptic evolution through next week is high, notable run-to-run variability in the convective environment forecast beyond D6 suggests predictability remains too limited to warrant highlights at this time. ..Moore.. 03/25/2026 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]