BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion De: COD Weather Processor Data: Wed, 25 Mar 2026 15:20:38 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- FOUS30 KWBC 251520 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1120 AM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026 Day 1 Valid 16Z Wed Mar 25 2026 - 12Z Thu Mar 26 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Hurley Day 2 Valid 12Z Thu Mar 26 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 27 2026 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY... Only minor tweaks were needed for the new Day 2 forecast this morning. The latest guidance, including some of the longer-range CAMs, suggests that there is a greater chance for training showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening and Thursday night across portions of northern Indiana and Ohio. A series of waves of showers and storms will race eastward along the interface of a very strong southward-moving cold front. A zonal upper level jet streak across Lake Superior will max out around 150 kt 00Z Friday. Meanwhile moisture advection will allow PWATs to creep above 1.25 inches and dew points to spike into the 60s. Instability in the longer-range guidance has also nudged higher, into the 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg range of MUCAPE. While organized convection appears likely given favorable instability and shear profiles, the fast motion of the storms will remain the primary factor limiting the flash flooding threat. Thus, as regards flooding potential, with somewhat better environmental parameters than 24 hours ago but still dry soils in most areas, especially into Illinois, the area remains under a solid Marginal Risk. The greatest threat of isolated instances of flash flooding remains into the urban centers. Since most of the showers and storms will be occurring overnight Thursday night in the Marginal Risk area, any flooding will pose a heightened danger due to lack of visibility. Wegman Day 3 Valid 12Z Fri Mar 27 2026 - 12Z Sat Mar 28 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Wegman Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5Vi8fOqqA3GZkS1JiyqPt6W8kTjibHWNq6CmP5bZeuk_= Yz0U_cq76SUNEfQNHy5SdfpIlGoEQs1LElRd059B3xmv9sU$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5Vi8fOqqA3GZkS1JiyqPt6W8kTjibHWNq6CmP5bZeuk_= Yz0U_cq76SUNEfQNHy5SdfpIlGoEQs1LElRd059BqpcLQ_g$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5Vi8fOqqA3GZkS1JiyqPt6W8kTjibHWNq6CmP5bZeuk_= Yz0U_cq76SUNEfQNHy5SdfpIlGoEQs1LElRd059B6kIYoac$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]