BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok De: COD Weather Processor Data: Thu, 26 Mar 2026 08:50:54 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS48 KWNS 260850 SWOD48 SPC AC 260848 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential will remain low through the end of the upcoming weekend, and while a gradual increase in severe weather potential is anticipated through next week, predictability remains limited. Extended-range deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to generally show good agreement in the eastward translation of the upper ridge currently over the Southwest towards the East Coast through the middle of next week. This will not only result in increasing southwesterly flow over the central CONUS, but will also promote lee troughing/cyclogenesis with an attendant uptick in moisture return into the Plains/MS Valley. Recent GEFS forecasts show high confidence in a return of slightly above seasonal moisture into the eastern Plains and Midwest by the D5/Monday to D6/Tuesday time frame. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to generally increase during this period as weak impulses embedded within the broader southwest flow regime overspread the returning moisture. Based on more bullish deterministic solutions, some severe risk may materialize across the Midwest late D5/Monday into D6/Tuesday within a warm frontal zone, and potentially across the central Plains on D7/Wednesday or D8/Thursday as a cold front pushes southeast in tandem with the intensification of a surface low. While these signals are noted, run-to-run variability among deterministic guidance remains fairly high regarding the evolution/placement of surface features and convective environments beyond D6/Tuesday. Latest GEFS and ECENS guidance, as well as long-range ensemble clustering and extended calibrated guidance, show a substantial increase in variance by mid-week, which implies limited confidence in any particular solution. While not surprising at this range and with an upper-level regime shift yet to occur, it remains unclear when predictability of any mid-week severe threat will substantially improve. ..Moore.. 03/26/2026 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]