BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Thu, 26 Mar 2026 16:10:26 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 261610 SWODY1 SPC AC 261608 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe/damaging winds all appear likely. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a flattened upper ridge centered over the south-central U.S. with strong westerly mid/upper-level flow across the Midwest/Great Lakes. A mid-level shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will move quickly east-southeast into the Upper Midwest and act to suppress mid-level heights across the Midwest/Great Lakes through tonight. Surface analysis this morning showed a weak low over eastern IA with a west-east oriented frontal zone extending east across the southern Great Lakes. If a weak surface reflection is maintained and develops east across the southern Great Lakes through this evening, it may notably influence severe potential within a focused corridor late this afternoon through this evening. The aforementioned front will gradually push south and serve as the primary impetus for storm development. Beneath a capping inversion, moistening will continue with surface dewpoints rising into the 56-62 deg F range from the mid MS Valley east into western PA. Upwards of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is likely by mid afternoon south of the front. A belt of strong, westerly 50-65 kt 700-mb flow is forecast to move from IA and expand spatially across the warm sector through early evening. This increase in flow will act to elongate hodographs despite mainly veered southwesterly surface flow. Recent convection-allowing model guidance varies considerably on the depiction of cellular versus mostly linear clusters evolving in the first few hours of the convective life cycle. Time-lagged HRRR would imply a more spatially and numerically extensive supercell hail and tornado risk than most of the 12z HREF HRW members showing less risk of these hazards. The tornado risk could focus with potential supercells near a weak low and where surface flow would locally back to southerly. However, confidence is muted regarding this specific scenario. Regardless, current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly develop along the length of the front from central IL eastward into IN, southern Lower MI, and northern OH by 19-22Z as diurnal heating erodes lingering convective inhibition. A mix of supercells and organized linear clusters will evolve with large to very large hail possible. A fairly quick transition to more linear structures appears likely given the frontal forcing, with an increasing threat for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds as one or more clusters spreads east-southeastward across much of the OH Valley into western/central PA through the late afternoon and evening. Given the forecast strength of the low to mid-level flow, isolated gusts of 75+ mph may occur. There is a threat for a few tornadoes as well with both supercells and embedded mesocirculations within the linear clusters. Farther west across the mid MS Valley (MO into eastern KS), there is lower confidence in warm sector thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening due to the presence of a stronger cap. However, elevated convection may occur along/behind the cold front this evening, with strong deep-layer shear and sufficient MUCAPE conditionally supporting supercells with mainly a threat for large hail. ..Smith/Hart.. 03/26/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]