BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Fri, 27 Mar 2026 00:48:59 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 270048 SWODY1 SPC AC 270047 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds will all be possible. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwesterly mid-level flow over the southern Great Lakes, Midwest and Ohio Valley, with a subtle shortwave trough evident within the flow over far northwest Illinois. At the surface, a cold front is located from central Illinois east-northeastward into north-central Ohio. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing near the front, extending northward into the cooler air about 150 statute miles. The best environment currently appears to be located from far eastern Indiana eastward to east of Columbus, Ohio, where RAP analysis shows a west-to-east axis of MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings near this axis of instability have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. Cells are currently discrete within this environment, which will continue to favor supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter appear likely with the more intense supercells. In addition, low-level lapse rates are also steep, which will support a wind-damage threat. A few gusts above 70 knots will be possible. Also, forecast soundings within this unstable airmass have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 450 m2/s2 range, suggesting that a tornado threat will continue with the more intense supercells. The severe threat will likely be maximized within this corridor over the next few hours...see MCD 293. The severe threat should expand eastward across far eastern Ohio and into western Pennsylvania. Further west into parts of Indiana and Illinois, the strongest storms are currently located near and to the east of Indianapolis. Although the storms are not as strong westward into central and northern Illinois, convective intensity is expected to increase as the shortwave trough moves eastward across the state, along with the exit region of a mid-level jet. Scattered severe storms are expected to develop over the next couple of hours, and a cluster or line could become organized...see MCD 294. Isolated severe storms will also be possible further west into parts of Missouri and far eastern Kansas later this evening. ..Broyles.. 03/27/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]