BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion De: COD Weather Processor Data: Fri, 27 Mar 2026 00:49:23 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- FOUS30 KWBC 270049 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 849 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026 Day 1 Valid 01Z Fri Mar 27 2026 - 12Z Fri Mar 27 2026 ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF OHIO THROUGH NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... Late afternoon/early evening radar imagery was showing increase=20 coverage and increasing rainfall rates from Illinois eastward into=20 southern New York. The axis of a 150 to 175 knot upper level jet=20 over the Great Lakes was propagating eastward into part of=20 Quebec...spreading subtle but important upper level difluence over=20 a region of warm advection and moisture transport into the area and where upper layers of the soils were already at/near saturation.=20 With precipitable water values expected to peak close to 1.5 inches over parts of the Ohio Valley this evening...aided by the support=20 in the upper levels...the area from Ohio into parts of Pennsylvania and southern New York have the best chances for some locally=20 intense rainfall rates. Given at least some overlap with where rain has fallen recently and suppressed values of Flash Flood=20 Guidance...saw little reason to make more than cosmetic changes to=20 the Slight Risk area of the Marginal Risk area that covered areas=20 to the east. There are mixed signals about the potential for excessive rainfall farther west into portions Illinois and Indiana. Better moisture=20 flux convergence along outflow boundaries from on-going convection may shunt the best instability south of the model forecasts. On=20 the other hand....some training is possible where the resulting=20 boundary aligns with the steering flow. Considering the=20 uncertainty...made no changes to the Marginal Risk area there. Bann Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri Mar 27 2026 - 12Z Sat Mar 28 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Cook/Wegman Day 3 Valid 12Z Sat Mar 28 2026 - 12Z Sun Mar 29 2026 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Cook/Wegman Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5zKEZJk8paRR_8yAGlUs4R1AvFsXvDYxTu_QzHQ8UaGC= x6tnnCASIFBa5isGteCdA7jllgM_exfvZn3fST7Gl6jDePk$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5zKEZJk8paRR_8yAGlUs4R1AvFsXvDYxTu_QzHQ8UaGC= x6tnnCASIFBa5isGteCdA7jllgM_exfvZn3fST7Gvo9C9po$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5zKEZJk8paRR_8yAGlUs4R1AvFsXvDYxTu_QzHQ8UaGC= x6tnnCASIFBa5isGteCdA7jllgM_exfvZn3fST7Gajz0uHc$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]