BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook De: COD Weather Processor Data: Fri, 27 Mar 2026 12:41:32 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS01 KWNS 271241 SWODY1 SPC AC 271239 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected today from North Carolina and Virginia into the Ozark Plateau, but no severe threat is forecast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Recent surface analysis places an extensive cold front from just off the northern Mid-Atlantic southwestward through the TN Valley and into west TX. This front is expected to continue surging southward/southeastward today as a large area of high pressure builds into the Plains. This progression will take the front off both the Carolina/Southeast Coast and the TX/Central Gulf Coast by early tomorrow morning, leaving only the FL Peninsula within the pre-frontal warm sector. The airmass preceding the front will be modestly moist, with dewpoints largely in the upper 50s/low 60s. When combined with modest daytime heating, this should be enough low/mid-level moisture to foster limited buoyancy across VA and the Carolinas, supporting the potential for thunderstorms as the front moves through. Some isolated surface-based development is possible along the front, but the progressive nature of the front will lead to undercutting and limited residence time in the warm sector. Mid-levels will not be particularly cold but should still be sufficient for limited elevated buoyancy behind the front. Consequently, additional thunderstorms will remain possible behind the front as large-scale ascent increases. NC will be on the southern edge of the stronger flow aloft, and deep-layer vertical shear will be strong enough to support rotating updrafts and a conditional severe risk. However, given only modest buoyancy and relatively warm thermodynamic profiles, most updrafts will likely be transient and shallow, not acquiring the necessary depth and persistence to organize. Best chance for a strong storm capable of damaging gusts is in the vicinity of GSO and RDU in northwest NC, where slightly improved thermodynamic are possible. Farther southwest, some deeper convective is possible well behind the front this afternoon as the subtle shortwave trough currently moving into OK moves through the Ozark Plateau amid modest elevated buoyancy. Resulting convection should be transient and shallow, but could still augment the strong low-level flow to produce damaging gusts. A few lightning flashes are possible with the deepest cores. ..Mosier/Marsh.. 03/27/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]