BBS: TELESC.NET.BR Assunto: DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok De: COD Weather Processor Data: Sat, 28 Mar 2026 07:20:37 +0000 ----------------------------------------------------------- ACUS03 KWNS 280720 SWODY3 SPC AC 280719 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the upper Mississippi River Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow over the central to northern Rockies is forecast to increase over the next 48-72 hours as an upper ridge shifts towards the Southeast and a low-amplitude upper wave begins to translate along the U.S./Canadian border. Lee cyclone development is anticipated across the northern High Plains by early Monday with steady intensification expected as it migrates east ahead of the upper wave. The deepening surface low will promote northward moisture return through the MS Valley and into the upper Great Lakes region while eastward advection of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates takes place aloft. Thunderstorm development appears probable overnight across the upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes region as isentropic ascent increases along the tightening warm frontal zone of the cyclone. Elsewhere, more isolated thunderstorms are possible along the western FL Gulf coast where sea-breeze ascent within a moist and weakly capped environment should support a few thunderstorms. Similarly, isolated convection is possible across parts of the lower MS Valley within a plume of rich low-level moisture. Another day of isolated, high-based thunderstorms is expected across portions of the Southwest. Weak deep-layer wind shear across these regions will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ....Upper MS Valley/Lake Michigan... The combination of low-level moistening and steepening lapse rates aloft will support steady destabilization through Monday and into Monday night. Model consensus is that 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE should be in place by Monday evening across the southern WI region. Initially dry and capped low-level profiles will likely preclude thunderstorm development during the day, though increasing ascent within the 925-850 mb warm frontal zone should increase thunderstorm chances during the 00-06 UTC period. While elevated convection appears likely, hodograph elongation through the CAPE-bearing layer should support storm organization, including the potential for a supercell or two. Although storm motions along the frontal zone hint that some degree of clustering is probable, at least a localized hail threat should materialize given the favorable buoyancy/shear environment. ..Moore.. 03/28/2026 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107) ----------------------------------------------------------- [Voltar]